One in Seven U.S. Home Sales Fell Apart in September. In San Francisco It Was Closer to One in Thirty-Six.

A signed contract is not a sale. In September, the distance between those two things was wider than it has been in any month of Redfin’s records except the first weeks of the pandemic.

If you own a California home and are deciding whether to list, the useful part of that number is not the headline. It is how far your own market sits from it — because in the same report, the metro with the lowest cancellation share in the country was in California.

What the October 13 report actually says

• ·Redfin’s September pending home sales report, published October 13, 2026, estimates that 14.5% of home purchase agreements signed in September were canceled before closing — roughly one in seven, the highest September share in its records and, outside March and April 2020, its highest for any month
• ·Pending sales fell 4% from August on a seasonally adjusted basis, Redfin’s steepest one-month decline in more than three years, to the lowest count since spring 2014 excluding April 2020
• ·Pending sales fell year over year in all 50 of the most populous U.S. metros. Los Angeles was down 16.0%, San Diego 15.8% and Anaheim 15.5%
• ·San Francisco had the lowest cancellation share of the metros Redfin ranked, at 2.8% — roughly one contract in 36. Jacksonville, Florida had the highest at 19.9%
• ·Chen Zhao, Redfin’s head of economic research, tied the slowdown to financing cost: when the 30-year runs above 7%, fewer people buy because fewer can afford to
• ·Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey put the 30-year fixed at an average of 7.40% on October 8, 2026, up from 7.28% a week earlier and 6.30% a year ago, with the 15-year fixed at 6.73%

A national cancellation rate is not your cancellation rate

The two numbers in that report that look like contradictions are both Redfin’s: 14.5% nationally, 2.8% in San Francisco. The spread between its highest and lowest metro ran roughly seven to one. An average has never described a single transaction, and a national one is furthest from yours.

California’s supply picture is also its own. The California Association of Realtors’ August 2026 home sales and price report, released September 16, 2026, put the statewide Unsold Inventory Index at 3.7 months, active listings down 6.2% year over year, and the statewide median at $901,420. Redfin reported national inventory in September at its highest level since March 2020, in a market it called the strongest buyer’s market in its records; California inventory moved the other way.

The Bay Area is the concrete example, and it cuts both ways

Take the Bay Area as the example, because it is both the metro at the bottom of Redfin’s cancellation list and the place in California where a percentage commission costs the most. The same C.A.R. report put the Bay Area regional median at $1,272,000, with county medians inside that one region running from $575,000 in Solano to $2,250,000 in San Mateo.

Redfin’s “San Francisco” is one metro area, not the nine-county region and not the state. Fresno, Bakersfield, Riverside and Sacramento are their own markets on their own counts. A low cancellation share describes a month that has already ended; it is not a promise about your escrow. Realonomie does not forecast cancellation rates, prices or mortgage rates.

What a seller can actually do about fall-through risk

• ·Read the financing, not just the price: a pre-approval naming the lender, the loan type and the down payment is a different proposition than a pre-qualification
• ·Ask when the buyer’s rate lock expires and what happens if it does. Freddie Mac’s weekly 30-year average moved from 6.30% to 7.40% over the past year, so a payment that worked at contract may not work at closing
• ·Keep inspection and appraisal contingency periods clearly defined, so that if a deal breaks you learn it early enough to go back on market quickly
• ·Price against closed, comparable sales from the last 60 to 90 days — the dataset the buyer’s appraiser will use. A gap between contract price and appraised value is a common place deals come apart
• ·This is general market information, not legal, tax or investment advice. Contingency and cancellation rights are specific to your contract — ask your broker

The cost that does not depend on the market

You do not set the national cancellation rate, the Freddie Mac average, or whether a buyer’s lender re-underwrites the file in week three. You do set your list price and what the sale itself costs you.

Take a $1,000,000 California home as the anchor. A traditional listing-side commission of about 3% runs roughly $30,000. Realonomie puts your home on the same MLS every agent uses, with a licensed California broker, for $999 at MLS launch — non-refundable, covering photography, signage, the property page and marketing — plus $5,000 from escrow only if the home actually closes. On that $1,000,000 home that is $5,999 in total against roughly $30,000: $24K+ you keep. Above $1,000,000, the closing fee adds $2,500 for each additional million.

In a month when one deal in seven nationally did not reach the closing table, the structure matters: the closing portion comes out of escrow only when escrow actually closes. The MLS-launch payment is non-refundable either way. See the full fee schedule and real verified results, then get a free estimate of what your home would sell for.