Half of America’s Mortgages Are Still Under 4%. What That Means If You’re Selling in California

The number everyone quoted this week was the rate on a new mortgage. The more useful one landed the day before, and it is about the mortgage you already have.

Both are true at once, and the gap between them is why many California owners who want to move have not.

What the published numbers said this week

• ·The Federal Housing Finance Agency updated its National Mortgage Database outstanding-mortgage statistics on September 30, 2026, with data through the second quarter of 2026: 49.1% of outstanding U.S. mortgages carry a rate under 4%, down from a 65.2% peak in the first quarter of 2022. The same table puts 65.6% under 5% and 22.5% above 6%
• ·Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey, released October 1, 2026, put the 30-year fixed at an average of 7.28%, up from 7.03% a week earlier and 6.34% a year ago. The 15-year fixed averaged 6.60%, up from 6.42% a week earlier and 5.55% a year ago
• ·Realtor.com’s September 2026 Monthly Housing Trends Report, released September 30, 2026, found new listings down 0.7% year over year while active inventory ran 5.4% higher, at more than 1,161,000 homes (Realtor.com research)
• ·We do not forecast rates or prices. Every figure above is what a named source published this week

The rate you would give up is a real cost. It is not the whole decision.

If your loan sits in that 49.1%, moving means trading it for whatever the market offers the week you close. At 7.28%, that trade is expensive, and nobody should pretend otherwise.

What a rate alone cannot tell you is the payment, which depends on the loan amount as much as the rate. An owner moving down in price, or carrying a large share of a California home’s equity into the next one, can borrow enough less that the monthly number holds even when the rate roughly doubles. An owner moving up is in a different arithmetic problem, and only a lender can say which is yours.

The opposite mistake gets discussed far less: staying years longer in a house that no longer fits, to protect a rate. A rate is a financing term, not a home.

The other side of lock-in: it thins out your competition

Every locked-in owner who decides this is not the year is a home your listing does not compete against. That is what the Realtor.com data shows: new listings slightly below last year even as active inventory sits well above it, because homes are sitting longer rather than arriving faster.

That is no promise your home sells quickly. It does mean the supply you are listing into is shaped by the same number making you hesitate.

If your loan is FHA or VA, ask whether it can be assumed

A sub-4% loan is usually a reason not to sell. On two loan types it can be the opposite.

HUD states that all FHA-insured mortgages are assumable, with restrictions depending on origination date; loans closed on or after December 15, 1989 require the lender to credit-qualify whoever assumes. For VA-guaranteed loans committed after March 1, 1988, VA guidance is that any qualified purchaser may assume the loan, subject to lender or VA approval and with the loan current at closing (see VA Circular 26-23-10).

Two cautions before anyone puts it in the marketing. An assumption is not fast — it runs on the servicer’s timeline, and the buyer still has to cover the gap between your balance and the price, often most of it in California. And the same VA guidance explains that a seller’s entitlement generally stays tied to the property unless an eligible buyer substitutes their own.

None of this is legal, tax or financial advice, and assumability depends on your note. Ask your servicer the week you decide to list, not the week an offer lands.

Bay Area numbers, statewide math

The California Association of Realtors’ August 2026 home sales and price report, released September 16, 2026, put the statewide median at $901,420, up 0.1% from $900,620 in August 2025, with median days on market at 28, down from 31 a year earlier.

Take the Bay Area as the concrete case: C.A.R. put the regional median near $1,272,000 in August, against that $901,420 statewide figure. A locked-in loan sits behind a bigger balance in Fremont than in Fresno, so the dollars move. The question does not — in Chula Vista, Bakersfield or Redding it is still what the next payment looks like, and what staying is costing you.

The number that is actually yours to set

You do not set the survey average or how many other owners stay put. You do set your list price, and what selling costs you.

On a $1,000,000 home, a traditional listing-side commission of about 3% runs roughly $30,000. Guided Home Realty puts your home on the same MLS every agent uses, with a licensed California broker, for $999 at MLS launch — non-refundable, covering photography, signage, the dedicated property page and marketing — plus $5,000 paid out of escrow only if the home actually closes, $5,999 in total on that $1,000,000 home. Above $1,000,000, the closing fee adds $2,500 for each additional million. Against a traditional ~$30,000 commission on that same $1,000,000 home, that is $24K+ you keep.

See real verified results, then start with a free, no-obligation estimate of what your home would sell for.