The Fed Raised Rates and the 30-Year Hit 6.95%. What That Means If You’re Selling in California

The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate on Wednesday, and by Thursday morning the average 30-year mortgage had jumped nearly a fifth of a point. If your plan was to wait for rates to come down before you list, this week moved the other way.

What changed this week

• ·The Federal Open Market Committee raised the federal funds target range by a quarter point to 3.75%–4.00% on September 16, 2026, in a unanimous 12–0 vote (Federal Reserve)
• ·The FOMC statement said inflation “remains elevated” and that the move would “support a timelier return to the Committee’s 2 percent goal” (Federal Reserve)
• ·Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey put the 30-year fixed at 6.95% on September 17, 2026 — up from 6.76% the week before and 6.26% a year earlier
• ·The 15-year fixed averaged 6.26%, up from 6.09% the prior week (Freddie Mac)

Freddie Mac chief economist Sam Khater said in that release: “The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage continues to fluctuate as markets assess economic data.” The Fed does not set mortgage rates directly — they track longer-term bond yields — but this week both moved the same way.

California’s August data landed the same day, and it was solid

The California Association of Realtors published its August 2026 home sales and price report on September 16, hours before the Fed announcement. Statewide:

• ·Median price: $901,420, up 1.6% from July and up 0.1% from August 2025 — back above $900,000 (C.A.R.)
• ·Existing single-family home sales: a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 269,620, up 2.4% from July and up 1.4% year over year (C.A.R.)
• ·Unsold Inventory Index: 3.7 months of supply, up 8.8% from July (C.A.R.)
• ·Median days on market: 28 days, down from 31 days a year earlier (C.A.R.)
• ·Active listings: down 6.2% year over year (C.A.R.)

That is a market that firmed up in August: more sales, a higher median, homes going pending in under a month, and fewer competing listings than a year ago. The rate move landed on a market that was working.

C.A.R. president Tamara Suminski said buyers “remained engaged in August despite elevated borrowing costs,” but that “the recent rise in mortgage rates and continued economic uncertainty could create some headwinds as we move into the fall.” C.A.R. chief economist Jordan Levine put it conditionally: “If the Federal Reserve decides to take a more restrictive path for the rest of the year, mortgage rates could remain elevated or move higher, further challenging affordability and weighing on market activity this fall.” That is an if, not a forecast, and we do not predict rates or prices.

If your plan started with “once rates come down”

A lot of California homeowners are sitting on a plan that begins with those words. It is worth naming what that plan is: a bet on the direction of something no seller controls. By Freddie Mac’s own survey, the 30-year is 0.69 points higher than a year ago.

There is also a crowding problem. Every owner waiting for the same dip lists into the same window when it arrives, and C.A.R. counted active listings down 6.2% year over year in August. The waiting has a cost, and it belongs in the decision next to your timeline and your equity — mechanics in how mortgage rates affect what your home sells for.

Why no statewide number should set your price

A statewide median is the middle sale price of whatever happened to close that month. It is a headline, not a valuation. The same C.A.R. report put the San Francisco Bay Area regional median at $1,272,000 in August, down 0.2% year over year — while county medians inside that one region ran from $575,000 in Solano to $2,250,000 in San Mateo, with Santa Clara at $1,900,000, Alameda at $1,285,000 and Contra Costa at $875,000.

One region, one month, a spread of more than $1.6 million. The same logic holds everywhere in California. The only number that prices your home is a comparable-sales analysis of your home.

What to do if you are listing this fall

• ·Price to closings from the last 60 to 90 days. Buyers and appraisers work from recent sales, not a statewide headline.
• ·Treat the first two weeks as the entire listing. With a statewide median of 28 days on market, a home still sitting after a month is telling buyers something.
• ·Expect payment-sensitive buyers. At 6.95%, most buyers shop by monthly payment, so precision on price beats a cushion for negotiation.
• ·Budget for asks. With the Unsold Inventory Index up 8.8% month over month, buyers have more options and more room to request credits or repairs.

The number that is actually yours to set

You do not set the federal funds rate, and you do not set your county’s median. You do set what it costs you to sell — and that number did not move this week.

A traditional listing-side commission of about 3% runs roughly $30,000 on a $1,000,000 home. Guided Home Realty lists your home on the same MLS every agent uses, with a licensed California broker, for a flat $999 at MLS launch (non-refundable) plus $5,000 from escrow when it closes — $5,999 total instead of a percentage. Against a traditional ~$30,000 commission, that is $24K+ you keep, at 6.95% or at any other rate.

See real verified results, then start with a free, no-obligation estimate of your home’s value.