The Fed Held Rates on Wednesday. Both Dissenting Votes Wanted Them Higher.

The Federal Open Market Committee left its target range for the federal funds rate at 3.75% to 4.00% on October 28, 2026. The vote was 10 to 2, and the detail worth a California homeowner’s attention is which way the two dissenters went: Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack both preferred to raise the rate by a quarter point (CNN live coverage, October 28, 2026).

Nobody in the room this week argued for a cut. That matters because an enormous number of selling plans in this state currently begin with the words “once rates come down.” The hold was a pause after the quarter-point increase the Committee made on September 16, 2026 — not a turn.

What the market now prices for December 9

Chair Kevin Warsh declined to prejudge the Committee’s next decision at his post-meeting press conference, saying growth is strong and inflation is too high (Chair Warsh’s press conference, October 28, 2026 — preliminary transcript).

Traders priced it anyway. On the afternoon of the decision, CME’s FedWatch tool put the probability of a quarter-point increase at the December 9 meeting at 85.7%, as reported by CNBC (CNBC, October 28, 2026).

That is market pricing on one afternoon, not a forecast from this brokerage, and futures markets have been wrong in both directions this year. We do not predict rates. We do think a seller should know that the consensus bet right now points up rather than down.

Mortgage rates did not take their cue from the Fed

The Fed sets an overnight bank rate. The 30-year mortgage is priced off long-term bonds, and Wednesday showed the difference cleanly.

• ·Mortgage News Daily reported that the announcement itself had no impact on mortgage rate movement, with its 30-year fixed average finishing about 0.02% above the previous day’s 7.33% (Mortgage News Daily, October 28, 2026)
• ·The 10-year Treasury yield — the benchmark mortgages actually track — rose more than three basis points to 5.026% on the day, even though the Fed did nothing (CNBC, October 28, 2026)
• ·Freddie Mac’s weekly survey, a separate and slower measure, last published a 30-year fixed average of 7.32% on October 22, 2026, down from 7.40% (Freddie Mac PMMS)

What a quarter point costs a buyer, on a Bay Area price

The California Association of Realtors put the statewide median price for an existing single-family home at $899,720 in September, up 1.7% from a year earlier, with sales running 6.5% below September 2025 (C.A.R. September home sales and price report, October 19, 2026).

Take a $1,000,000 home — above that statewide median, and an unremarkable price across much of the Bay Area — with 20% down. On an $800,000 loan at 7.32%, principal and interest run about $5,495 a month. A quarter point higher, at 7.57%, the same loan is about $5,632 — roughly $137 more every month. Put the other way: a buyer who holds that payment steady borrows about $780,600 instead of $800,000, which is close to $19,000 of purchasing power gone.

Be careful with that arithmetic. A quarter-point move in the federal funds rate does not translate into a quarter point on the 30-year; the figures above are standard amortization run on the survey rates to show what a quarter point is worth to a buyer, not a prediction that any such move happens. Taxes, insurance and HOA dues sit on top, and your buyer’s quoted rate depends on their credit, down payment and lender.

What this changes for a California seller

It does not make the decision for you, and waiting is itself a position. C.A.R. reported that active listings rose 0.5% year over year in September — the first annual increase in eight months — with the Unsold Inventory Index at 3.7 months (same report). Waiting for a rate rescue that the futures market is currently betting against means listing later into more competition, in Redding and Bakersfield as much as in Walnut Creek.

What stays entirely yours is the list price on day one and what the sale costs you. On a $1,000,000 home, a traditional listing-side commission of about 3% runs roughly $30,000. Realonomie lists your home on the same MLS every agent uses, with a licensed California broker, for $999 at MLS launch — non-refundable, and it covers photography, signage, the dedicated property page and marketing — plus $5,000 paid out of escrow only if the home actually closes. On that $1,000,000 home that is $5,999 in total against roughly $30,000: $24K+ you keep. Above $1,000,000 the closing fee adds $2,500 for each additional million, so a $1,500,000 sale is $999 up front plus $7,500 at close. See the full fee schedule.

A Fed that held, two votes that wanted more, and a 10-year above 5% are not a reason to panic or a reason to rush. They are a reason to price for the buyer who is shopping this month rather than the one you hoped would show up in the spring. This article is general market information, not legal, tax or investment advice.